Census 2021 case studies of towns with large student population

Reference: FOI/2022/4359

You asked

In response to the OSR investigation of the population estimates and projections which reported on 10 May 2021, ONS announced it was undertaking case studies of towns like Coventry with a large student population.

Regarding these, please provide the following information:

1. A list of the towns and cities selected for case studies.

2. Any documents detailing how the case studies will be carried out.

3. Any preliminary or final results of the case studies.

4. Any correspondence or emails relating to the case studies.

We said

Thank you for your request.

Please see the following answers to each part of your query.

1. A list of the towns and cities selected for case studies

We are planning pilot work in 14 local authority areas. The list of areas is Blackpool, Boston, Cambridge, Ceredigion, Coventry, Guildford, Gwynedd, Islington, Manchester, Newham, North Norfolk, Swansea, Warwick and Westminster. We selected the areas to test our methods for a range of social and geographic features including areas with high student numbers, coastal areas, rural areas, and metropolitan city areas. This work will involve us reviewing administrative data sources relating to what they show about the size and nature of different population groups and publishing our results as case studies and publishing research (planned for October) from the dynamic population model (DPM) for the areas in the pilot studies.

We launched a framework for gathering ongoing local population insights from all local authorities and other external users. This can be found here: Rebasing and reconciliation of mid-year population estimates following Census 2021, England and Wales: 2022. Both this framework and our research into student populations in local areas form part of our commitments following the Office for Statistics Regulation review of ONS population estimates and projections.

We know that the population may have changed since the Census and it is important that we accurately measure that change. We are therefore transforming our population and social statistics system to provide more frequent, relevant, and timely statistics in the future. In July we published our proposal for a DPM to estimate population in a timely way. The DPM uses a statistical modelling approach to draw strength from a range of data sources such as administrative and survey data. The DPM will produce fully coherent estimates of both the size of population and the components of how the population has changed over time through births, deaths, and migration.

2. Any documents detailing how the case studies will be carried out

We published an update on research and plans for population estimates and projections in May 2022, which we would consider in scope of this question. Aside from this, we can confirm that we do not hold any further documentation detailing how the studies will be carried out.

We plan to publish the results of these case studies in October 2022. We welcome feedback on them in terms of the data sources and potential further analysis, including through our local population insight feedback framework which we will publish on 5 September. This will be a way for users of local population statistics to provide insight from data that we can explore to guide future development work for our population estimates and to understand limitations in current estimates.

You may be interested in the following data sources we are using for these case studies:

• Data supplied by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA), some of which is publicly available on the HESA website.
• Census 2021 estimates of population by age, sex and student status.
• Admin-Based Population Estimates v3.
• We are comparing these data sources with the mid-2020 population estimates which were published last year.

3. Any preliminary or final results of the case studies

Any preliminary results available from our work on this so far cannot be shared prior to publication planned for October 2022, under Regulation 12(4)(d) of the Environmental Information regulations (EIRs). This information is still in the course of completion and would contravene our Code of Practice for Statistics to release this prior to the case study's completion.

We understand and appreciate arguments in favour of release, including the importance of the public's ability to participate and be appropriately informed about the development of information that may have an impact on the environment. However, we do not believe that this would be fulfilled by releasing incomplete material at this time, as the public would be informed about, and draw conclusions from, data that may not be accurate or relevant. In fact, the release of any preliminary findings prior to the completion of these case studies could confound public understanding of these environmental issues by presenting misleading findings and therefore distract from the debate. Consequently, we believe that the finalised information we plan to publish in October this year will fulfil this purpose rather than incomplete work held at this time. We see further public interest in withholding this information for the moment, as the publication date of the case studies is so soon.

Furthermore, we require a protected space where we can conduct research and draw conclusions when developing and conducting a case study such as this. Public authorities must have the use of a protected space to discuss and deliberate research without fear of intrusion, which could, in turn, cause a chilling effect on the ability of the public authority to engage in free and frank exchange of views for the purposes of deliberation. This would lead to poor decision-making practices which would directly and negatively impact both the public and the environment.

The public interest therefore falls in favour of withholding the requested information at this time.

4. Any correspondence or emails relating to the case studies

We have pulled together a pack of correspondence that would be relevant to the purposes of your request. This can be found in the PDF attached to this response named 'Correspondence_re_population_estimates_case_studies.pdf'. This includes emails from the date the case study was announced (26 May 2022) to the date your request was received (31 July 2022).

In this disclosure, we have only included emails in scope that we feel would be most relevant to your interests. We have therefore excluded general administrative correspondence regarding the case studies that add no further understanding of this project (such as meeting invitations with no descriptions).

We hope that the pack of correspondence provided will therefore be helpful to you.

Personal data of those at Senior Executive Officer and below have been redacted under Regulation 13 of the EIRs.

Some further information has been withheld under Regulation 12(4)(e) of the EIRs. This is because this constitutes internal correspondence regarding the case studies' methodology and the release of this information at this time would prejudice the safe space required to deliberate and develop ideas.

We appreciate arguments in favour of the transparency of the decision-making processes behind these case studies, which will further public understanding and allow them to participate in debates on this topic.

However, we see greater public value in the protection of a safe space at this time to develop ideas and reach solid, well-researched decisions, enabled by the ability of our staff to have candid discussions and exchanges of views. The loss of frankness and candour during this process would damage the quality of advice and lead to poorer decision making, which in turn would damage the value of this work to the public. As work on these case studies is still ongoing, it is still important for us to keep this space protected.

Therefore, on balance, the public interest test falls in favour of withholding this information in this case.