Crynodeb

National population projections (NPPs) provide an indication of the potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. A full NPP release using the latest available population data including census data and new assumptions for fertility, mortality, and migration. Providing a range of variant projections. The base population is planned to be mid-2022. NPPs are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education, and pensions.

Cyhoeddiadau

• National population projections: 2022-based

  The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. These statistics are widely used in planning, including fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.

• UK population projection explorer

  Use our projection tool to find out how changes in life expectancy, net migration, and fertility could affect the population over a long period.

Data

• High migration variant - Scotland summary

  High migration variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low life expectancy variant - Scotland summary

  Low life expectancy variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Principal projection - UK summary

  Principal projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Principal projection - Great Britain summary

  Principal projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Wales summary

  Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Migration category variant, UK summary

  Migration category variant for UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Replacement fertility variant - England summary

  Replacement fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High migration variant - Northern Ireland summary

  High migration variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High life expectancy variant - Scotland summary

  High life expectancy variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High life expectancy variant - Wales summary

  High life expectancy variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• No long-term mortality improvement variant - Scotland summary

  No long-term improvement mortality variant for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Principal projection - Wales summary

  Principal projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zipped population projections data files, Wales

  Open data for Wales principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

• High fertility variant - Wales summary

  High fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low fertility variant - Wales summary

  Low fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Comparison of international migration estimates with projections, UK and constituent countries

  Comparison of net long-term international migration estimates with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.

• High migration variant - Wales summary

  High migration variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low life expectancy variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Low life expectancy variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High population variant - UK summary

  High population variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low population variant - Scotland summary

  Low population variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - UK summary

  Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low migration variant - England summary

  Low migration variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Replacement fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Replacement fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Principal projection - Scotland summary

  Principal projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Young age structure variant - Scotland summary

  Young age structure variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low fertility variant - England summary

  Low fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High population variant - Northern Ireland summary

  High population variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High migration variant - Great Britain summary

  High migration variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low migration variant - Wales summary

  Low migration variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zipped population projections data files, Northern Ireland

  Open data for Northern Ireland principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

• High fertility variant - UK summary

  High fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Old age structure variant - Wales summary

  Old age structure variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High population variant - Scotland summary

  High population variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High life expectancy variant - England summary

  High life expectancy variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High migration variant - UK summary

  High migration variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Old age structure variant - Scotland summary

  Old age structure variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High fertility variant - England summary

  High fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Scotland summary

  Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low migration variant - Scotland summary

  Low migration variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Low fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High life expectancy variant - UK summary

  High life expectancy variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Comparison of total fertility rate estimates with projections, UK and constituent countries

  Comparison of total fertility rate (TFR) with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.

• Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - England summary

  Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Principal projection - England summary

  Principal projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Young age structure variant - Wales summary

  Young age structure variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• National population projections table of contents

  Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022-based national population projections. Contains links to the principal and (where available) variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.

• Low migration variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Low migration variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary

  High fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High migration variant - England summary

  High migration variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Old age structure variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Old age structure variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Old age structure variant - UK summary

  Old age structure variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zipped population projections data files, Great Britain

  Open data for Great Britain principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

• Zipped population projections data files, Scotland

  Open data for Scotland principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

• Low migration variant - Great Britain summary

  Low migration variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Comparison of life expectancy estimates with projections, UK and constituent countries

  Comparison of period life expectancy at birth estimates with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.

• Low life expectancy variant - UK summary

  Low life expectancy variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• No long-term mortality improvement variant - UK summary

  No long-term improvement mortality variant for UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low fertility variant - Scotland summary

  Low fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High fertility variant - Scotland summary

  High fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low population variant - UK summary

  Low population variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low life expectancy variant - Wales summary

  Low life expectancy variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Young age structure variant - England summary

  Young age structure variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Replacement fertility variant - Wales summary

  Replacement fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Zipped population projections data files, England

  Open data for England principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

• Zipped population projections data files, UK

  Open data for UK principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

• Low population variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Low population variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Comparison of old age dependency ratio estimates and projections, UK and constituent countries

  Comparison of old age dependency ratio (OADR) estimates with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.

• Young age structure variant - UK summary

  Young age structure variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High population variant - Wales summary

  High population variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low migration variant - UK summary

  Low migration variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low life expectancy variant - England summary

  Low life expectancy variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low population variant - Wales summary

  Low population variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Replacement fertility variant - Scotland summary

  Replacement fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Comparison of deaths estimates with projections, UK and constituent countries

  Comparison of deaths with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.

• Low population variant - England summary

  Low population variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Comparison of births estimates with projections, UK and constituent countries

  Comparison of births with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.

• No long-term mortality improvement variant - England summary

  No long-term improvement mortality variant for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Replacement fertility variant - UK summary

  Replacement fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High population variant - England summary

  High population variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Young age structure variant - Northern Ireland summary

  Young age structure variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Low fertility variant - UK summary

  Low fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• No long-term mortality improvement variant - Wales summary

  No long-term improvement mortality variant for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Migration category variant, England summary

  Migration category variant for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Migration category variant - Scotland summary

  Migration category variant for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Comparison of mid-year population estimates with projections, UK and constituent countries

  Comparison of mid-year population estimates with 1971-based to 2022-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries, including measures of error.

• No long-term mortality improvement variant - Northern Ireland summary

  No long-term improvement mortality variant for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• High life expectancy variant - Northern Ireland summary

  High life expectancy variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Principal projection - Northern Ireland summary

  Principal projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Migration category variant, Wales summary

  Migration category variant for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

• Old age structure variant - England summary

  Old age structure variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.

Methodology

• National population projections, variant projections: 2022-based

  The variant projections, a range of scenarios with alternative demographic assumptions, used in the 2022-based national population projections.

• National population projections, mortality assumptions: 2022-based

  The data sources and methodology used to produce mortality assumptions in the UK 2022-based national population projections.

• National population projections, fertility assumptions: 2022-based

  The data sources and methodology used to produce fertility assumptions in the 2022-based national population projections.

• National population projections quality and methodology information

  Quality and methodology information for national population projections, detailing the strengths and limitations of the data, methods used and data uses and users.

• National population projections, migration assumptions: 2022-based

  The data sources and methodology used to produce migration assumptions in the 2022-based national population projections.

• National population projections, background, methodology and assumption setting: 2022-based

  Information on the data, methods and assumption setting process used to produce the 2022-based national population projections.

• Comparing national population projections to estimates report

  Methodology on the comparison of national population projections from 1971 to 2022 with population estimates, births, long-term international migration, and deaths, including measures of error.

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