Model-based early estimates of regional gross value added in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2022
The model uses as an input the Quarterly Regional GDP. In the November 2022 release of Quarterly Regional GDP, further revisions are likely (aligning to revised national GDP data due to be published on 30th September 2022) - where we will also publish the industry detail.
On the modelled based approach we are working with ESCoE to widen the range of sub-national data sources to be included in the model which it is hoped will improve the model’s ability to nowcast performance in times of economic change. It is likely these improvements will be in place by the end of 2022.
Following this redevelopment work we need to reassess model-based performance.
During this development period and given the economic uncertainty we plan to pause the model-based estimates until the redevelopment work on both sources has been completed (end 2022).
Crynodeb
This release will publish experimental model-based estimates of quarterly regional Gross Value Added (GVA) output for the nine English regions, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
The model-based estimates are produced using an econometric model created as part of the Economic Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Research Project, Regional Nowcasting in the UK.