Office for National Statistics (ONS) has today published articles setting out the indicative impact on the UK Sector and Financial Accounts and Balance of Payments of the previously announced improvements to the UK National Accounts that will be introduced when revised figures, consistent with Blue Book 2018 and Pink Book 2018, are published on 29 June 2018.
The most significant improvements being introduced in June are the previously announced improvements to the estimates of “net spread earnings” and the introduction of enhancements to the processing of UK trade data. The overall impact of these improvements is to change the current account deficit by between a widening of £1.2 billion in 2001 and narrowing of £10.8 billion in 2016 (from 5.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 5.2% of GDP).
The impact of these improvements on the household saving ratio range from positive 0.4 percentage points in 1997 to negative 0.4 percentage points in 2016, with the average revision to the saving ratio being 0.0 percentage points. The downward revision in 2016, which is due mainly to the receipt of later data, means the saving ratio of 6.6% in 2016 is now the lowest since 1971.
These improvements have no impact on average annual growth in real household disposable income (RHDI) between 1997 and 2016. However, in 2016 annual RHDI growth has been revised down from 0.0% to negative 0.2%, making it the first year of negative RHDI growth since 2011 when the growth rate was negative 1.7%.
The impact on UK gross national income (GNI) of these improvements is between positive £9.5 billion in 2011 and positive £0.2 billion in 2000, with the average absolute revision being £4.9 billion.
Commenting on today’s improvements, ONS Director of Economic Statistics Transformation Darren Morgan said:
“While the impact of these changes is small overall, they ensure our statistics stay in line with international best practice and provide the best possible estimate of the size and shape of the UK economy and how it interacts with the rest of the world.”
Background notes
The full National Accounts articles: Detailed assessment of changes to sector and financial accounts, 1997 to 2016 article.
The full National Accounts articles: Detailed assessment of changes to balance of payments annual estimates, 1997 to 2016 article.
On 8 May, ONS published an article entitled National Accounts articles: Impact on GDP current price and chained volume measure annual and quarterly estimates: 1997 to 2016.
On 13 April, ONS published an article entitled Impact of Blue Book 2018 changes on current price gross domestic product estimates: 1997 to 2016.
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