Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional: week ending 10 July 2020

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.

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21 July 2020 13:23

A correction has been made to the UK five-year average in the main points and the text within section 7 which has changed the difference from 611 fewer deaths to 587 fewer deaths. We apologise for any inconvenience.

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Cyswllt:
Email Sarah Caul

Dyddiad y datganiad:
21 July 2020

Cyhoeddiad nesaf:
28 July 2020

2. Main points

  • The number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 July 2020 (Week 28) was 8,690, this was 450 deaths fewer than Week 27.

  • In Week 28, the number of deaths registered was 6.1% below the five-year average (560 deaths fewer), this is the fourth consecutive week that deaths have been below the five-year average; the number of deaths in care homes, hospitals and other communal establishments were also fewer than the five-year average, while the number of deaths in private homes was 706 deaths higher than the five-year average.

  • Of the deaths registered in Week 28, 366 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, the lowest number of deaths involving COVID-19 in the last 16 weeks and a 31.2% decrease compared with Week 27 (532 deaths), accounting for 4.2% of all deaths in England and Wales.

  • In Week 28, the proportion of deaths occurring in care homes decreased to 19.0% while deaths involving COVID-19 as a percentage of all deaths in care homes decreased to 5.8%.

  • The number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased across all English regions, with all regions having fewer overall deaths than the five-year average, apart from the East of England, which had 2 more deaths.

  • In Wales, the total number of deaths was below the five-year average (6 deaths fewer) for Week 28 while the number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased to 22 deaths registered (from 35 deaths in Week 27).

  • Of all deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 28, 63.5% occurred in hospital with the remainder mainly occurring in care homes (29.7%), private homes (4.6%) and hospices (1.4%).

  • The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending 10 July 2020 (Week 28) was 9,919, which was fewer than the five-year average (by 587 deaths); of the deaths registered in the UK in Week 28, 388 deaths involved COVID-19.

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From next week (Week 29, ending 17 July 2020), the weekly bulletin content will be shortened. The comparison of weekly death occurrences article that gets published alongside the weekly bulletin will also no longer be produced, however, a small section covering England and Wales comparisons will be added to the weekly bulletin.

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3. Deaths registered by week

Figure 1: The number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased for the 12th consecutive week

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 10 July 2020

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The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales decreased from 9,140 in Week 27 (week ending 3 July 2020) to 8,690 in Week 28 (week ending 10 July 2020). The number of deaths was 6.1% below the five-year average (560 fewer deaths) (Figure 1). This is the fourth consecutive week that weekly deaths have been below the five-year average. More information is in Measuring the data.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a large impact on the number of deaths registered over the last few months and is the main reason for deaths increasing above what is expected (the five-year average). The disease has had a larger impact on those most vulnerable (for example, those who already suffer from a medical condition) and those at older ages. Some of these deaths would have likely occurred over the duration of the year but have occurred earlier because of the coronavirus. These deaths occurring earlier than expected could contribute to a period of deaths below the five-year average.

The number of deaths registered in Week 20 was impacted by the early May Bank Holiday (on Friday 8 May 2020, in Week 19); the impact of the early May Bank Holiday was analysed in our Week 20 bulletin. Week 22 included the late May Bank Holiday (on Monday 25 May 2020), so trends seen in Weeks 22 and 23 should also be interpreted with caution.

The number of death registrations involving COVID-19 decreased from 532 in Week 27 to 366 in Week 28, the lowest number of COVID-19 deaths registered since Week 12 (week ending 20 March) when 103 deaths involved COVID-19. Of all deaths registered in Week 28, 4.2% mentioned COVID-19; down from 5.8% in Week 27.

The number of deaths in England and Wales decreased in Week 28. In England, there was a decrease from 8,542 in Week 27 to 8,103 in Week 28, which was 545 fewer than the Week 28 five-year average. Of the Week 28 deaths, 4.2% (344 deaths) involved COVID-19 in England.

In Wales, the number of deaths decreased by 12 deaths in Week 28 to 572 deaths, which was 6 deaths fewer than the five-year average. Of these, 3.8% (22 deaths) involved COVID-19.

The number of deaths mentioning “Influenza and Pneumonia” on the death certificate (without COVID-19) decreased from 1,004 in Week 27 to 917 in Week 28, remaining below the five-year average. The number of deaths that mentioned both "Influenza and Pneumonia" and COVID-19 on the death certificate decreased to 180, compared with 204 deaths in Week 27.

In Week 28, 14.8% of all deaths mentioned "Influenza and Pneumonia", COVID-19, or both compared with 16.8% in Week 27. "Influenza and Pneumonia" has been included for comparison, as a well-understood cause of death involving respiratory infection that is likely to have somewhat similar risk factors to COVID-19.

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Figure 2: The number of excess deaths involving COVID-19 continued to decrease

Number of deaths registered by week, England and Wales, 28 December 2019 to 10 July 2020

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As COVID-19 was not a cause of death prior to 2020, any deaths involving COVID-19 appear in the counts above the five-year average and are counted as excess deaths. This means that when the number of deaths involving COVID-19 is higher than the number of excess deaths, the bar indicating deaths not involving COVID-19 makes a negative contribution.

Between Weeks 1 and 12, 138,916 deaths were registered, which was 4,822 fewer than the five-year average for these weeks. However, between Weeks 13 and 28, 214,520 deaths were registered, which was 58,270 more than the five-year average. Week 28 showed a continuation of the decreasing trend in excess deaths involving COVID-19 (Figure 2). Detailed analysis on non-COVID-19 related deaths is available in Analysis of death registrations not involving coronavirus (COVID-19).

Looking at the year-to-date (using the most up-to-date data we have available), the number of deaths up to 10 July 2020 was 353,407, which is 53,419 more than the five-year average. Of the deaths registered by 10 July 2020, 50,946 mentioned COVID-19 on the death certificate; 14.4% of all deaths in England and Wales.

Looking at the year-to-date for England and Wales separately, the number of deaths for England was 332,006, which is 51,695 (18.4%) more than the five-year average. Of these, 48,388 deaths (14.6%) mentioned COVID-19. In Wales, the number of deaths up to 10 July was 20,865, which is 2,050 (10.9%) more than the five-year average; of these, 2,484 deaths (11.9%) mentioned COVID-19.

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4. Deaths registered by age group

Figure 3: Over a quarter of all deaths involving COVID-19 were of people aged 90 years and over in Week 28

Number of deaths by age group, England and Wales, week ending 10 July 2020

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In Week 28, the number of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in England and Wales decreased or remained the same across all age-groups, except for those aged between 20 and 24 years, and 60 and 64 years, where a slight increase in deaths was seen (1 and 3 deaths respectively) compared with Week 27.

The number of deaths involving COVID-19 remained higher in the older age groups than in younger age groups (Figure 3). The highest proportions of deaths involving COVID-19 were of people aged between 75 and 79 years, and 90 years and over, where 4.6% and 5.6% of deaths involved COVID-19, respectively.

Looking at the year-to-date, for most age groups, there have been more deaths involving COVID-19 in males than in females (Figure 4). Across Weeks 1 to 28 of 2020, 55.0% of all deaths involving COVID-19 were males. However, there were more deaths in females aged 85 years and over (11,659) than males (9,883). This could be because the over-85 years female population (939,000) is larger than the over-85 years male population (564,000) in England and Wales.

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5. Deaths by region in England and Wales

Figure 5: The number of deaths involving COVID-19 was highest in the North West and South East

Number of deaths by regions in England, and Wales, week ending 10 July 2020

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Figure 6: The number of deaths involving COVID-19 registered across all English regions and Wales decreased in Week 28

Number of deaths by regions in England, and Wales, week ending 10 July 2020

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In Week 28 (week ending 10 July 2020), there were 22 deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) registered in Wales.

Out of the English regions, the North West and South East both had the largest number of deaths involving COVID-19 (62 deaths), whereas Yorkshire and The Humber had the highest proportion of deaths involving COVID-19, with 5.5% of all deaths. More detailed geographical analysis between 1 March and 31 May 2020 can be found in our Deaths involving COVID-19 by local area and socioeconomic deprivation release.

The number of deaths registered in Week 28 was lower than the five-year average for all English regions, except for the East of England, which had 2 deaths above the average. Although the number of deaths was highest in the South East (1,228 deaths), it had the highest percentage of deaths below the five-year average (12.1%). In Wales, the number of deaths registered in Week 28 was 1.0% lower than the five-year average (Table 1).

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6. Deaths registered by place of occurrence

The year-to-date analysis shows that, of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) up to Week 28 (week ending 10 July 2020), 63.5% (32,332 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in care homes (15,122 deaths), private homes (2,358 deaths), hospices (713 deaths), other communal establishments (229 deaths), and elsewhere (192 deaths).

The proportion of deaths from all causes that occurred in care homes continued to decrease to 19.0% in Week 28. The proportion of care home deaths that involved COVID-19 also decreased; 5.8% of all deaths in care homes involved COVID-19 in Week 28, compared with 9.2% in Week 27.

Between Week 27 and Week 28, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 decreased in all settings, apart from deaths that occurred in private homes, which remained similar increasing by 1 death. The proportion of deaths involving COVID-19 occurring in hospitals increased to 61.5% in Week 28 (compared with 58.1% in Week 27). The proportion of deaths occurring in care homes decreased (from 31.8% Week 27 to 26.0% in Week 28).

Figure 8: The number of excess deaths decreased in all settings

Number of excess deaths by place of occurrence, England and Wales, registered between Week 1 and Week 28 of 2020

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In Week 28, the number of excess deaths decreased in all settings compared with Week 27. Deaths in most settings were below the five-year average, with care home deaths lower than the five-year average for the fourth consecutive week. The only setting with excess deaths (above the five-year average) was private homes, with 706 deaths in Week 28.

Figure 9 is based on date of death for deaths registered up to 18 July 2020, rather than date of registration. This means as more deaths are registered, deaths per day are likely to increase, especially later dates.

Looking at the average number of deaths in Week 28, deaths occurring in hospitals have accounted for 64.2%, and care homes have accounted for 26.6%, of all deaths involving COVID-19. This may change as more deaths are registered. Although we expect numbers of deaths to increase as more are registered, it currently appears that deaths per day are decreasing.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is working with the Care Quality Commission (CQC) and Public Health England to better understand deaths that are occurring in care homes. From 28 April, we have published counts of deaths reported by care home operators to CQC involving COVID-19. More information can be found in our comparisons article.

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7. Deaths registered in the UK

Across the UK, there were 9,919 deaths (all causes) registered in Week 28 (ending 10 July 2020), of which 388 deaths involved COVID-19. This was 587 fewer deaths than the UK five-year average.

There were 5 deaths involving COVID-19 in the UK in Week 11 (ending 13 March); this increased to 9,495 deaths registered in Week 16 (ending 17 April) but has fallen to 388 deaths registered in Week 28. In Week 28, England had the highest number of deaths involving COVID-19 with 344 deaths, followed by Wales with 22 deaths, Scotland with 13 deaths and Northern Ireland with 9 deaths.

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8. Deaths data

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional
Dataset | Released 21 July 2020
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available. Includes data on the coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths.

Death registrations and occurrences by local authority and health board
Dataset | Released 21 July 2020
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, including deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19), by local authority, health board and place of death in the latest weeks for which data are available.

Number of deaths in care homes notified to the Care Quality Commission, England
Dataset | Released 21 July 2020
Provisional counts of deaths in care homes caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) by local authority. Published by the Office for National Statistics and Care Quality Commission.

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9. Glossary

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths

Coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths are those deaths registered in England and Wales in the stated week where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. A doctor can certify the involvement of COVID-19 based on symptoms and clinical findings – a positive test result is not required.

Definitions of COVID-19 for deaths in Scotland and Northern Ireland are similar to England and Wales.

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10. Measuring the data

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the Mortality statistics in England and Wales QMI.

To meet user needs, we publish very timely but provisional counts of death registrations in England and Wales in our Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional dataset. These are presented by sex, age group and regions (within England) as well as for Wales as a whole. To allow time for registration and processing, these figures are published 11 days after the week ends. Because of the rapidly changing situation, in this bulletin we have also given provisional updated totals based on the latest available death registrations, up to 18 July 2020.

Because of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, our regular weekly deaths release now provides a separate breakdown of the numbers of deaths involving COVID-19: that is, where COVID-19 or suspected COVID-19 was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, including in combination with other health conditions. If a death certificate mentions COVID-19 it will not always be the main cause of death but may be a contributory factor. This new bulletin summarises the latest weekly information and will be updated each week during the pandemic.

These figures are different from the daily surveillance figures on COVID-19 deaths published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) on the GOV.UK website, for the UK as a whole and constituent countries. Figures in this report are derived from the formal process of death registration and may include cases where the doctor completing the death certificate diagnosed possible cases of COVID-19, for example, where this was based on relevant symptoms but no test for the virus was conducted.

In contrast to the GOV.UK figures, we include only deaths registered in England and Wales, which is the legal remit of the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Table 2 provides an overview of the differences in definitions between sources.

From 29 April 2020, DHSC started to publish as their daily announced figures on deaths from COVID-19 for the UK, a new series that uses improved data for England produced by Public Health England (PHE). These figures provide a count of all deaths where a positive test for COVID-19 has been confirmed, wherever that death has taken place, a change from previously reporting only confirmed COVID-19 deaths in hospitals. Figures for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have already begun to include deaths outside hospitals, so this change ensured that the UK-wide series has a shared and common definitional coverage. A statement was published by the ONS, which provides more detail of the changes.

We will publish accompanying articles periodically, giving enhanced information such as age-standardised and age-specific mortality rates for recent time periods and breakdowns of deaths involving COVID-19 by associated pre-existing health conditions.

There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our Impact of registration delays release.

Our User guide to mortality statistics provides further information on data quality, legislation and procedures relating to mortality and includes a glossary of terms.

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11. Strengths and limitations

Figures are based on the date the death was registered, not when it occurred. There is usually a delay of at least five days between occurrence and registration. More information on this issue can be found in our Impact of registration delays release.

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Manylion cyswllt ar gyfer y Bwletin ystadegol

Sarah Caul
health.data@ons.gov.uk
Ffôn: +44 (0)1633 456 490