"Figure 3: The variant assumptions provide a range of alternative migration scenarios","" "Net international migration estimates, principal and variant migration assumptions, UK, years ending mid-1994 to mid-2030","" "","" "Notes","1. Historical international figures for England, Wales and Scotland are primarily based on International Passenger Survey (IPS) data. Northern Ireland figures are obtained directly from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) and derived mainly from medical card data. The data in this figure will differ from published calendar year long-term international migration estimates. 2. Immigration and emigration data for the years ending mid-2002 to mid-2010 come from the mid-year population estimates components of change, which contained revisions to account for the results of the 2011 Census. Therefore, the figures will differ from the published long-term international migration estimates. 3. Historical migration data are rounded to the nearest thousand. 4. Data for the year ending mid-2019 and onwards are projections. 5. 0% and 50% future EU migration variant assumptions are excluded from this figure because they are not National Statistics. " "Unit","Persons (thousands)" "","" "Year ending mid-","Historical migration","Principal projection","High variant","Low variant" "1994","44.4","","","" "1995","76.4","","","" "1996","74.8","","","" "1997","55.7","","","" "1998","79.1","","","" "1999","155.2","","","" "2000","161.9","","","" "2001","185.8","","","" "2002","173.2","","","" "2003","171.5","","","" "2004","193.9","","","" "2005","318.1","","","" "2006","233.6","","","" "2007","285.5","","","" "2008","265.5","","","" "2009","204.0","","","" "2010","245.0","","","" "2011","263.6","","","" "2012","168.8","","","" "2013","182.8","","","" "2014","254.1","","","" "2015","335.7","","","" "2016","333.1","","","" "2017","219.9","","","" "2018","271.0","271.0","271.0","271.0" "2019","","264.7","279.7","250.7" "2020","","254.6","283.6","225.6" "2021","","235.5","278.5","192.5" "2022","","224.0","281.0","167.0" "2023","","213.0","284.5","142.0" "2024","","201.0","287.0","116.0" "2025","","190.0","290.0","90.0" "2026","","190.0","290.0","90.0" "2027","","190.0","290.0","90.0" "2028","","190.0","290.0","90.0" "2029","","190.0","290.0","90.0" "2030","","190.0","290.0","90.0"