"Figure 3: Breakpoints for males and females aged under 75 years are evident in the early 2010s ","" "Age-standardised quarterly rolling annual mortality rates and fitted segmented model, by sex for those aged under 75 years, England, 1990 to 2018 ","" "","" "Notes","1. Age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000 population, standardised to the 2013 European Standard Population. 2. Figures exclude non-residents, based on boundaries as of May 2019. 3. Q1 refers to annual period ending Quarter 1 (April to March), Q2 refers to annual period ending Quarter 2 (July to June), Q3 refers to annual period ending Quarter 3 (October to September), Q4 refers to annual period ending Quarter 4 (January to December). 4. Segmented model is the segmented linear regression model produced by our program to best fit the data. 5. Pre-breakpoint trend projected is the trend fitted to the data up until the breakpoint projected forward to the end of the observed data time series." "Unit","Age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000" "","" "Period Ending","Males - Observed rate","Males - Segmented model","Males - Pre-breakpoint trend projected","Females - Observed rate","Females - Segmented model","Females - Pre-breakpoint trend projected" "Q4 1990","779.8","781.2","781.2","448.6","453.5","453.5" "Q1 1991","773.5","776.7","776.7","445.9","451.3","451.3" "Q2 1991","770.7","772.3","772.3","445.1","449.1","449.1" "Q3 1991","766.5","767.8","767.8","443.3","447.0","447.0" "Q4 1991","761.5","763.4","763.4","440.7","444.8","444.8" "Q1 1992","756.7","758.9","758.9","438.6","442.6","442.6" "Q2 1992","748.4","754.5","754.5","433.9","440.4","440.4" "Q3 1992","743.9","750.1","750.1","431.7","438.3","438.3" "Q4 1992","736.2","745.6","745.6","427.6","436.1","436.1" "Q1 1993","728.9","741.2","741.2","423.1","433.9","433.9" "Q2 1993","727.6","736.7","736.7","422.8","431.8","431.8" "Q3 1993","725.9","732.3","732.3","421.6","429.6","429.6" "Q4 1993","736.8","727.8","727.8","431.2","427.4","427.4" "Q1 1994","730.5","723.4","723.4","430.1","425.2","425.2" "Q2 1994","724.5","719.0","719.0","426.7","423.1","423.1" "Q3 1994","723.0","714.5","714.5","428.2","420.9","420.9" "Q4 1994","705.3","710.1","710.1","416.0","418.7","418.7" "Q1 1995","708.9","705.6","705.6","416.4","416.5","416.5" "Q2 1995","708.2","701.2","701.2","417.4","414.4","414.4" "Q3 1995","700.8","696.8","696.8","413.7","412.2","412.2" "Q4 1995","702.9","692.3","692.3","416.9","410.0","410.0" "Q1 1996","699.8","687.9","687.9","417.3","407.9","407.9" "Q2 1996","694.2","683.4","683.4","413.4","405.7","405.7" "Q3 1996","693.3","679.0","679.0","412.4","403.5","403.5" "Q4 1996","684.8","674.5","674.5","407.4","401.3","401.3" "Q1 1997","672.9","670.1","670.1","404.9","399.2","399.2" "Q2 1997","671.0","665.7","665.7","405.5","397.0","397.0" "Q3 1997","666.0","661.2","661.2","403.0","394.8","394.8" "Q4 1997","658.6","656.8","656.8","399.1","392.6","392.6" "Q1 1998","654.0","652.3","652.3","392.4","390.5","390.5" "Q2 1998","648.3","647.9","647.9","390.1","388.3","388.3" "Q3 1998","644.6","643.4","643.4","387.7","386.1","386.1" "Q4 1998","644.5","639.0","639.0","389.5","384.0","384.0" "Q1 1999","646.7","634.6","634.6","393.0","381.8","381.8" "Q2 1999","637.0","630.1","630.1","387.3","379.6","379.6" "Q3 1999","630.8","625.7","625.7","384.5","377.4","377.4" "Q4 1999","625.0","621.2","621.2","380.5","375.3","375.3" "Q1 2000","624.1","616.8","616.8","378.8","373.1","373.1" "Q2 2000","620.9","612.4","612.4","377.2","370.9","370.9" "Q3 2000","613.4","607.9","607.9","374.4","368.8","368.8" "Q4 2000","600.4","603.5","603.5","366.5","366.6","366.6" "Q1 2001","584.5","599.0","599.0","358.2","364.4","364.4" "Q2 2001","580.0","594.6","594.6","357.9","362.2","362.2" "Q3 2001","578.9","590.1","590.1","355.3","360.1","360.1" "Q4 2001","575.6","585.7","585.7","354.9","357.9","357.9" "Q1 2002","567.6","581.3","581.3","349.3","355.7","355.7" "Q2 2002","566.3","576.8","576.8","348.1","353.5","353.5" "Q3 2002","564.8","572.4","572.4","349.1","351.4","351.4" "Q4 2002","563.6","567.9","567.9","346.3","349.2","349.2" "Q1 2003","558.7","563.5","563.5","344.5","347.0","347.0" "Q2 2003","553.5","559.0","559.0","342.0","344.9","344.9" "Q3 2003","549.7","554.6","554.6","339.4","342.7","342.7" "Q4 2003","549.7","550.2","550.2","342.3","340.5","340.5" "Q1 2004","546.5","545.7","545.7","341.6","338.3","338.3" "Q2 2004","541.1","541.3","541.3","336.8","336.2","336.2" "Q3 2004","534.7","536.8","536.8","333.9","334.0","334.0" "Q4 2004","522.9","532.4","532.4","326.7","331.8","331.8" "Q1 2005","520.0","528.0","528.0","325.4","329.6","329.6" "Q2 2005","518.4","523.5","523.5","326.1","327.5","327.5" "Q3 2005","514.2","519.1","519.1","323.5","325.3","325.3" "Q4 2005","508.2","514.6","514.6","319.1","323.1","323.1" "Q1 2006","504.8","510.2","510.2","317.1","321.0","321.0" "Q2 2006","501.6","505.7","505.7","315.0","318.8","318.8" "Q3 2006","497.5","501.3","501.3","312.8","316.6","316.6" "Q4 2006","492.4","496.9","496.9","310.4","314.4","314.4" "Q1 2007","486.9","492.4","492.4","308.5","312.3","312.3" "Q2 2007","480.6","488.0","488.0","305.7","310.1","310.1" "Q3 2007","475.8","483.5","483.5","302.0","307.9","307.9" "Q4 2007","475.7","479.1","479.1","303.1","305.7","305.7" "Q1 2008","472.2","474.6","474.6","299.3","303.6","303.6" "Q2 2008","470.3","470.2","470.2","298.3","301.4","301.4" "Q3 2008","468.9","465.8","465.8","298.8","299.2","299.2" "Q4 2008","467.6","461.3","461.3","299.7","297.1","297.1" "Q1 2009","464.1","456.9","456.9","298.2","294.9","294.9" "Q2 2009","457.9","452.4","452.4","293.8","292.7","292.7" "Q3 2009","453.4","448.0","448.0","290.2","290.5","290.5" "Q4 2009","449.6","443.5","443.5","285.9","288.4","288.4" "Q1 2010","445.4","439.1","439.1","283.6","286.2","286.2" "Q2 2010","443.8","434.7","434.7","283.5","284.0","284.0" "Q3 2010","442.4","430.2","430.2","283.2","281.9","281.9" "Q4 2010","440.1","425.8","425.8","281.6","279.7","279.7" "Q1 2011","440.0","423.5","421.3","282.0","277.5","277.5" "Q2 2011","437.1","422.5","416.9","280.5","275.3","275.3" "Q3 2011","432.8","421.6","412.5","279.0","273.2","273.2" "Q4 2011","423.5","420.6","408.0","273.5","271.0","271.0" "Q1 2012","416.3","419.7","403.6","270.3","269.2","268.8" "Q2 2012","413.7","418.7","399.1","270.9","268.9","266.6" "Q3 2012","411.7","417.8","394.7","269.0","268.5","264.5" "Q4 2012","411.2","416.8","390.2","269.9","268.2","262.3" "Q1 2013","411.5","415.8","385.8","268.9","267.8","260.1" "Q2 2013","413.5","414.9","381.4","268.5","267.5","258.0" "Q3 2013","411.3","413.9","376.9","267.8","267.1","255.8" "Q4 2013","409.4","413.0","372.5","265.6","266.8","253.6" "Q1 2014","406.6","412.0","368.0","264.1","266.4","251.4" "Q2 2014","401.6","411.1","363.6","261.0","266.1","249.3" "Q3 2014","403.2","410.1","359.1","261.1","265.7","247.1" "Q4 2014","402.5","409.1","354.7","262.3","265.4","244.9" "Q1 2015","406.0","408.2","350.3","266.4","265.0","242.7" "Q2 2015","406.3","407.2","345.8","266.5","264.7","240.6" "Q3 2015","404.1","406.3","341.4","265.6","264.3","238.4" "Q4 2015","403.3","405.3","336.9","263.5","264.0","236.2" "Q1 2016","402.1","404.4","332.5","262.2","263.6","234.1" "Q2 2016","403.5","403.4","328.1","265.2","263.3","231.9" "Q3 2016","403.2","402.4","323.6","264.8","262.9","229.7" "Q4 2016","400.7","401.5","319.2","265.8","262.6","227.5" "Q1 2017","401.6","400.5","314.7","265.3","262.2","225.4" "Q2 2017","398.1","399.6","310.3","260.6","261.9","223.2" "Q3 2017","396.7","398.6","305.8","258.9","261.5","221.0" "Q4 2017","397.4","397.6","301.4","257.8","261.2","218.8" "Q1 2018","402.1","396.7","297.0","259.9","260.8","216.7" "Q2 2018","404.0","395.7","292.5","262.0","260.5","214.5" "Q3 2018","401.9","394.8","288.1","261.7","260.1","212.3" "Q4 2018","400.3","393.8","283.6","260.5","259.8","210.2"