"Figure 8: With the addition of 2018 data the breakpoint for females changed from the 1990s to the early 2010s ","" "Age-standardised quarterly rolling annual mortality rates and fitted segmented model, by sex for all ages, Wales, 1990 to 2018","" "","" "Notes","1. Age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000 population, standardised to the 2013 European Standard Population. 2. Figures exclude non-residents, based on boundaries as of May 2019. 3. Q1 refers to annual period ending Quarter 1 (April to March), Q2 refers to annual period ending Quarter 2 (July to June), Q3 refers to annual period ending Quarter 3 (October to September), Q4 refers to annual period ending Quarter 4 (January to December). 4. Segmented model is the segmented linear regression model produced by our program to best fit the data. 5. Pre-breakpoint trend projected is the trend fitted to the data up until the breakpoint projected forward to the end of the observed data time series." "Unit","Age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000" "","" "Period Ending","Males - Observed rate","Males - Segmented model","Males - Pre-breakpoint trend projected","Females - Observed rate","Females - Segmented model","Females - Pre-breakpoint trend projected" "Q4 1990","1917.2","1948.2","1948.2","1199.3","1256.9","1256.9" "Q1 1991","1922.3","1939.7","1939.7","1211.9","1253.0","1253.0" "Q2 1991","1909.2","1931.2","1931.2","1214.6","1249.1","1249.1" "Q3 1991","1895.3","1922.7","1922.7","1214.7","1245.2","1245.2" "Q4 1991","1877.2","1914.2","1914.2","1201.8","1241.3","1241.3" "Q1 1992","1857.8","1905.7","1905.7","1191.3","1237.4","1237.4" "Q2 1992","1845.2","1897.2","1897.2","1182.3","1233.5","1233.5" "Q3 1992","1829.8","1888.7","1888.7","1176.5","1229.6","1229.6" "Q4 1992","1806.9","1880.2","1880.2","1184.7","1225.7","1225.7" "Q1 1993","1802.0","1871.7","1871.7","1173.5","1221.8","1221.8" "Q2 1993","1813.0","1863.2","1863.2","1179.7","1217.9","1217.9" "Q3 1993","1824.2","1854.7","1854.7","1195.4","1214.0","1214.0" "Q4 1993","1902.0","1846.3","1846.3","1241.0","1210.1","1210.1" "Q1 1994","1882.1","1837.8","1837.8","1230.7","1206.2","1206.2" "Q2 1994","1867.8","1829.3","1829.3","1230.3","1202.3","1202.3" "Q3 1994","1844.5","1820.8","1820.8","1217.7","1198.4","1198.4" "Q4 1994","1763.2","1812.3","1812.3","1153.3","1194.5","1194.5" "Q1 1995","1773.8","1803.8","1803.8","1163.7","1190.6","1190.6" "Q2 1995","1800.6","1795.3","1795.3","1158.7","1186.7","1186.7" "Q3 1995","1811.5","1786.8","1786.8","1159.4","1182.8","1182.8" "Q4 1995","1838.5","1778.3","1778.3","1193.1","1178.9","1178.9" "Q1 1996","1849.2","1769.8","1769.8","1210.4","1175.0","1175.0" "Q2 1996","1797.4","1761.3","1761.3","1200.0","1171.1","1171.1" "Q3 1996","1795.4","1752.8","1752.8","1202.4","1167.2","1167.2" "Q4 1996","1766.4","1744.3","1744.3","1180.8","1163.3","1163.3" "Q1 1997","1762.2","1735.8","1735.8","1185.1","1159.4","1159.4" "Q2 1997","1782.7","1727.3","1727.3","1188.9","1155.5","1155.5" "Q3 1997","1770.3","1718.8","1718.8","1178.7","1151.6","1151.6" "Q4 1997","1756.5","1710.3","1710.3","1171.4","1147.7","1147.7" "Q1 1998","1694.9","1701.8","1701.8","1134.7","1143.8","1143.8" "Q2 1998","1678.0","1693.3","1693.3","1133.6","1139.9","1139.9" "Q3 1998","1666.4","1684.8","1684.8","1134.9","1136.0","1136.0" "Q4 1998","1667.4","1676.3","1676.3","1144.8","1132.1","1132.1" "Q1 1999","1730.2","1667.8","1667.8","1189.3","1128.2","1128.2" "Q2 1999","1722.0","1659.3","1659.3","1178.2","1124.3","1124.3" "Q3 1999","1710.8","1650.8","1650.8","1173.3","1120.4","1120.4" "Q4 1999","1703.1","1642.3","1642.3","1169.1","1116.5","1116.5" "Q1 2000","1689.0","1633.8","1633.8","1151.6","1112.6","1112.6" "Q2 2000","1667.7","1625.3","1625.3","1147.1","1108.7","1108.7" "Q3 2000","1653.0","1616.8","1616.8","1134.2","1104.8","1104.8" "Q4 2000","1610.7","1608.4","1608.4","1109.7","1100.9","1100.9" "Q1 2001","1557.2","1599.9","1599.9","1089.5","1097.0","1097.0" "Q2 2001","1556.5","1591.4","1591.4","1096.6","1093.1","1093.1" "Q3 2001","1547.7","1582.9","1582.9","1097.4","1089.2","1089.2" "Q4 2001","1556.7","1574.4","1574.4","1099.5","1085.3","1085.3" "Q1 2002","1542.0","1565.9","1565.9","1084.7","1081.4","1081.4" "Q2 2002","1530.0","1557.4","1557.4","1080.2","1077.5","1077.5" "Q3 2002","1537.7","1548.9","1548.9","1094.4","1073.6","1073.6" "Q4 2002","1530.7","1540.4","1540.4","1100.2","1069.7","1069.7" "Q1 2003","1539.3","1531.9","1531.9","1098.6","1065.8","1065.8" "Q2 2003","1549.1","1523.4","1523.4","1108.7","1061.9","1061.9" "Q3 2003","1539.6","1514.9","1514.9","1097.2","1058.0","1058.0" "Q4 2003","1557.5","1506.4","1506.4","1101.3","1054.1","1054.1" "Q1 2004","1536.3","1497.9","1497.9","1097.2","1050.2","1050.2" "Q2 2004","1503.5","1489.4","1489.4","1069.4","1046.3","1046.3" "Q3 2004","1483.1","1480.9","1480.9","1067.6","1042.4","1042.4" "Q4 2004","1448.6","1472.4","1472.4","1045.1","1038.5","1038.5" "Q1 2005","1456.0","1463.9","1463.9","1053.1","1034.6","1034.6" "Q2 2005","1462.4","1455.4","1455.4","1065.4","1030.7","1030.7" "Q3 2005","1443.9","1446.9","1446.9","1046.8","1026.8","1026.8" "Q4 2005","1418.4","1438.4","1438.4","1031.9","1022.9","1022.9" "Q1 2006","1400.9","1429.9","1429.9","1005.6","1019.0","1019.0" "Q2 2006","1379.0","1421.4","1421.4","989.7","1015.1","1015.1" "Q3 2006","1374.1","1412.9","1412.9","990.7","1011.2","1011.2" "Q4 2006","1353.9","1404.4","1404.4","977.4","1007.3","1007.3" "Q1 2007","1339.8","1395.9","1395.9","985.3","1003.4","1003.4" "Q2 2007","1349.1","1387.4","1387.4","985.9","999.5","999.5" "Q3 2007","1354.4","1379.0","1379.0","980.1","995.6","995.6" "Q4 2007","1385.3","1370.5","1370.5","995.9","991.7","991.7" "Q1 2008","1381.9","1362.0","1362.0","980.4","987.8","987.8" "Q2 2008","1367.8","1353.5","1353.5","973.9","983.9","983.9" "Q3 2008","1359.9","1345.0","1345.0","970.4","980.0","980.0" "Q4 2008","1355.4","1336.5","1336.5","983.2","976.0","976.0" "Q1 2009","1347.7","1328.0","1328.0","995.5","972.1","972.1" "Q2 2009","1324.8","1319.5","1319.5","975.9","968.2","968.2" "Q3 2009","1302.8","1311.0","1311.0","960.9","964.3","964.3" "Q4 2009","1277.0","1302.5","1302.5","931.5","960.4","960.4" "Q1 2010","1265.3","1294.0","1294.0","913.3","956.5","956.5" "Q2 2010","1260.8","1285.5","1285.5","917.1","952.6","952.6" "Q3 2010","1257.6","1277.0","1277.0","921.9","948.7","948.7" "Q4 2010","1260.3","1268.5","1268.5","930.4","944.8","944.8" "Q1 2011","1258.2","1260.0","1260.0","917.5","940.9","940.9" "Q2 2011","1266.3","1251.5","1251.5","907.7","937.0","937.0" "Q3 2011","1263.4","1243.0","1243.0","897.0","933.1","933.1" "Q4 2011","1232.8","1234.5","1234.5","874.6","929.2","929.2" "Q1 2012","1219.5","1226.0","1226.0","868.8","925.3","925.3" "Q2 2012","1216.2","1223.0","1217.5","882.8","921.4","921.4" "Q3 2012","1216.5","1222.7","1209.0","888.7","917.5","917.5" "Q4 2012","1226.5","1222.3","1200.5","907.5","913.6","913.6" "Q1 2013","1244.7","1222.0","1192.0","926.6","909.7","909.7" "Q2 2013","1261.1","1221.7","1183.5","934.8","905.8","905.8" "Q3 2013","1242.4","1221.4","1175.0","928.0","901.9","901.9" "Q4 2013","1238.8","1221.1","1166.5","907.2","898.0","898.0" "Q1 2014","1200.4","1220.7","1158.0","877.4","894.1","894.1" "Q2 2014","1166.4","1220.4","1149.6","853.1","891.2","890.2" "Q3 2014","1177.0","1220.1","1141.1","859.0","892.5","886.3" "Q4 2014","1186.6","1219.8","1132.6","876.8","893.7","882.4" "Q1 2015","1232.6","1219.4","1124.1","925.8","895.0","878.5" "Q2 2015","1245.6","1219.1","1115.6","940.1","896.3","874.6" "Q3 2015","1238.5","1218.8","1107.1","937.5","897.5","870.7" "Q4 2015","1220.4","1218.5","1098.6","926.4","898.8","866.8" "Q1 2016","1211.5","1218.2","1090.1","896.3","900.1","862.9" "Q2 2016","1208.5","1217.8","1081.6","895.2","901.4","859.0" "Q3 2016","1216.2","1217.5","1073.1","895.7","902.6","855.1" "Q4 2016","1216.7","1217.2","1064.6","895.6","903.9","851.2" "Q1 2017","1222.1","1216.9","1056.1","905.2","905.2","847.3" "Q2 2017","1216.2","1216.6","1047.6","897.4","906.4","843.4" "Q3 2017","1206.9","1216.2","1039.1","890.4","907.7","839.5" "Q4 2017","1203.2","1215.9","1030.6","889.9","909.0","835.6" "Q1 2018","1227.8","1215.6","1022.1","920.4","910.2","831.7" "Q2 2018","1227.8","1215.3","1013.6","919.8","911.5","827.8" "Q3 2018","1217.9","1214.9","1005.1","914.0","912.8","823.9" "Q4 2018","1219.1","1214.6","996.6","911.3","914.1","820.0"