"Figure 6: Mortality rates for females aged 85 to 89 years have improved at a greater rate than expected pre-breakpoint","" "Age-specific quarterly rolling annual mortality rates and fitted segmented model, for males and females aged 85 to 89 years, England, 1990 to 2018","" "","" "Notes","1. Age-specific mortality rates per 100,000 population. 2. Figures exclude non-residents, based on boundaries as of May 2019. 3. Q1 refers to annual period ending Quarter 1 (April to March), Q2 refers to annual period ending Quarter 2 (July to June), Q3 refers to annual period ending Quarter 3 (October to September), Q4 refers to annual period ending Quarter 4 (January to December). 4. Segmented model is the segmented linear regression model produced by our program to best fit the data. 5. Pre-breakpoint trend projected is the trend fitted to the data up until the breakpoint projected forward to the end of the observed data time series." "Unit","Age-specific mortality rates per 100,000" "","" "Period Ending","Males - Observed rate","Males - Segmented model","Males - Pre-breakpoint trend projected","Females - Observed rate","Females - Segmented model","Females - Pre-breakpoint trend projected" "Q4 1990","17704.8","18582.1","18582.1","12561.3","12559.1","12559.1" "Q1 1991","17989.3","18514.5","18514.5","12612.8","12553.9","12553.9" "Q2 1991","17969.9","18446.9","18446.9","12597.7","12548.7","12548.7" "Q3 1991","17847.0","18379.3","18379.3","12616.6","12543.5","12543.5" "Q4 1991","17979.4","18311.6","18311.6","12709.9","12538.3","12538.3" "Q1 1992","17799.0","18244.0","18244.0","12659.7","12533.1","12533.1" "Q2 1992","17603.9","18176.4","18176.4","12499.6","12527.9","12527.9" "Q3 1992","17516.2","18108.8","18108.8","12435.5","12522.7","12522.7" "Q4 1992","17265.8","18041.2","18041.2","12298.6","12517.5","12517.5" "Q1 1993","17015.0","17973.5","17973.5","12152.4","12512.3","12512.3" "Q2 1993","17213.4","17905.9","17905.9","12243.7","12507.1","12507.1" "Q3 1993","17368.2","17838.3","17838.3","12299.5","12501.9","12501.9" "Q4 1993","18205.4","17770.7","17770.7","12871.2","12496.7","12496.7" "Q1 1994","18176.4","17703.1","17703.1","12900.0","12491.5","12491.5" "Q2 1994","17983.1","17635.4","17635.4","12812.6","12486.3","12486.3" "Q3 1994","17859.7","17567.8","17567.8","12748.5","12481.1","12481.1" "Q4 1994","16895.3","17500.2","17500.2","12121.8","12475.9","12475.9" "Q1 1995","16935.3","17432.6","17432.6","12117.5","12470.7","12470.7" "Q2 1995","16967.0","17364.9","17364.9","12152.2","12465.5","12465.5" "Q3 1995","16939.7","17297.3","17297.3","12207.3","12460.3","12460.3" "Q4 1995","17384.2","17229.7","17229.7","12434.6","12455.1","12455.1" "Q1 1996","17682.6","17162.1","17162.1","12688.2","12449.9","12449.9" "Q2 1996","17691.2","17094.5","17094.5","12646.2","12444.7","12444.7" "Q3 1996","17743.6","17026.8","17026.8","12552.6","12439.5","12439.5" "Q4 1996","17369.1","16959.2","16959.2","12478.0","12434.3","12434.3" "Q1 1997","17367.6","16891.6","16891.6","12627.9","12406.6","12429.2" "Q2 1997","17258.0","16824.0","16824.0","12629.3","12369.7","12424.0" "Q3 1997","17122.1","16756.3","16756.3","12571.0","12332.8","12418.8" "Q4 1997","17081.1","16688.7","16688.7","12382.4","12295.8","12413.6" "Q1 1998","16533.6","16621.1","16621.1","11853.2","12258.9","12408.4" "Q2 1998","16557.8","16553.5","16553.5","11867.1","12222.0","12403.2" "Q3 1998","16532.5","16485.9","16485.9","11920.2","12185.1","12398.0" "Q4 1998","16667.1","16418.2","16418.2","12138.2","12148.1","12392.8" "Q1 1999","17161.8","16350.6","16350.6","12599.0","12111.2","12387.6" "Q2 1999","16766.1","16283.0","16283.0","12405.8","12074.3","12382.4" "Q3 1999","16639.5","16215.4","16215.4","12320.1","12037.3","12377.2" "Q4 1999","16567.7","16147.7","16147.7","12233.4","12000.4","12372.0" "Q1 2000","16607.3","16080.1","16080.1","12202.5","11963.5","12366.8" "Q2 2000","16671.6","16012.5","16012.5","12147.8","11926.5","12361.6" "Q3 2000","16558.7","15944.9","15944.9","12059.6","11889.6","12356.4" "Q4 2000","16154.3","15877.3","15877.3","11835.6","11852.7","12351.2" "Q1 2001","15628.4","15809.6","15809.6","11525.0","11815.7","12346.0" "Q2 2001","15794.4","15742.0","15742.0","11659.0","11778.8","12340.8" "Q3 2001","15962.7","15674.4","15674.4","11791.5","11741.9","12335.6" "Q4 2001","16183.2","15606.8","15606.8","11886.5","11704.9","12330.4" "Q1 2002","16218.3","15539.1","15539.1","11866.4","11668.0","12325.2" "Q2 2002","16204.0","15471.5","15471.5","11922.5","11631.1","12320.0" "Q3 2002","16223.8","15403.9","15403.9","12076.4","11594.1","12314.8" "Q4 2002","16359.0","15336.3","15336.3","12243.2","11557.2","12309.6" "Q1 2003","16226.6","15268.7","15268.7","12199.8","11520.3","12304.4" "Q2 2003","16228.6","15201.0","15201.0","12305.5","11483.3","12299.2" "Q3 2003","16167.8","15133.4","15133.4","12340.7","11446.4","12294.0" "Q4 2003","16112.3","15065.8","15065.8","12452.9","11409.5","12288.8" "Q1 2004","15889.2","14998.2","14998.2","12295.3","11372.5","12283.6" "Q2 2004","15493.0","14930.6","14930.6","11986.9","11335.6","12278.4" "Q3 2004","15075.3","14862.9","14862.9","11627.0","11298.7","12273.2" "Q4 2004","14269.6","14795.3","14795.3","10999.1","11261.7","12268.0" "Q1 2005","14141.7","14727.7","14727.7","10940.1","11224.8","12262.8" "Q2 2005","14175.4","14660.1","14660.1","10934.4","11187.9","12257.6" "Q3 2005","13956.2","14592.4","14592.4","10800.2","11150.9","12252.4" "Q4 2005","13883.4","14524.8","14524.8","10664.8","11114.0","12247.2" "Q1 2006","13749.6","14457.2","14457.2","10528.7","11077.1","12242.0" "Q2 2006","13578.2","14389.6","14389.6","10430.6","11040.2","12236.8" "Q3 2006","13527.4","14322.0","14322.0","10287.6","11003.2","12231.6" "Q4 2006","13384.6","14254.3","14254.3","10146.5","10966.3","12226.4" "Q1 2007","13372.7","14186.7","14186.7","10078.7","10929.4","12221.2" "Q2 2007","13297.4","14119.1","14119.1","10009.7","10892.4","12216.0" "Q3 2007","13209.9","14051.5","14051.5","10010.8","10855.5","12210.9" "Q4 2007","13325.0","13983.8","13983.8","10159.6","10818.6","12205.7" "Q1 2008","13241.6","13916.2","13916.2","10075.8","10781.6","12200.5" "Q2 2008","13315.0","13848.6","13848.6","10138.3","10744.7","12195.3" "Q3 2008","13351.1","13781.0","13781.0","10160.0","10707.8","12190.1" "Q4 2008","13684.0","13713.4","13713.4","10496.2","10670.8","12184.9" "Q1 2009","13903.9","13645.7","13645.7","10696.4","10633.9","12179.7" "Q2 2009","13795.7","13578.1","13578.1","10521.2","10597.0","12174.5" "Q3 2009","13829.5","13510.5","13510.5","10512.4","10560.0","12169.3" "Q4 2009","13600.7","13442.9","13442.9","10257.3","10523.1","12164.1" "Q1 2010","13406.1","13375.2","13375.2","10181.7","10486.2","12158.9" "Q2 2010","13371.9","13307.6","13307.6","10185.3","10449.2","12153.7" "Q3 2010","13239.0","13240.0","13240.0","10165.8","10412.3","12148.5" "Q4 2010","13230.4","13172.4","13172.4","10155.6","10375.4","12143.3" "Q1 2011","13080.5","13104.8","13104.8","9951.4","10338.4","12138.1" "Q2 2011","12913.6","13037.1","13037.1","9947.4","10301.5","12132.9" "Q3 2011","12907.5","12969.5","12969.5","9915.1","10264.6","12127.7" "Q4 2011","12546.6","12901.9","12901.9","9704.3","10227.6","12122.5" "Q1 2012","12584.3","12834.3","12834.3","9816.6","10190.7","12117.3" "Q2 2012","12682.5","12766.6","12766.6","9925.0","10153.8","12112.1" "Q3 2012","12628.1","12731.0","12699.0","9918.1","10116.8","12106.9" "Q4 2012","12810.7","12714.2","12631.4","10033.7","10079.9","12101.7" "Q1 2013","12912.9","12697.4","12563.8","10091.8","10043.0","12096.5" "Q2 2013","13055.8","12680.6","12496.2","10165.2","10006.1","12091.3" "Q3 2013","12946.5","12663.8","12428.5","10097.1","9969.1","12086.1" "Q4 2013","12712.1","12646.9","12360.9","9949.1","9932.2","12080.9" "Q1 2014","12349.6","12630.1","12293.3","9574.6","9895.3","12075.7" "Q2 2014","12001.3","12613.3","12225.7","9265.2","9858.3","12070.5" "Q3 2014","12113.3","12596.5","12158.1","9329.4","9821.4","12065.3" "Q4 2014","12276.1","12579.7","12090.4","9458.0","9784.5","12060.1" "Q1 2015","12877.4","12562.9","12022.8","10081.9","9747.5","12054.9" "Q2 2015","13008.9","12546.1","11955.2","10249.0","9710.6","12049.7" "Q3 2015","12914.3","12529.3","11887.6","10227.1","9673.7","12044.5" "Q4 2015","12718.8","12512.5","11819.9","10089.9","9636.7","12039.3" "Q1 2016","12218.2","12495.7","11752.3","9607.8","9599.8","12034.1" "Q2 2016","12267.9","12478.9","11684.7","9616.4","9562.9","12028.9" "Q3 2016","12187.2","12462.1","11617.1","9591.0","9525.9","12023.7" "Q4 2016","12257.1","12445.3","11549.5","9671.3","9489.0","12018.5" "Q1 2017","12478.3","12428.5","11481.8","9954.2","9452.1","12013.3" "Q2 2017","12262.2","12411.7","11414.2","9787.7","9415.1","12008.1" "Q3 2017","12249.2","12394.9","11346.6","9727.5","9378.2","12002.9" "Q4 2017","12257.7","12378.1","11279.0","9723.3","9341.3","11997.7" "Q1 2018","12575.6","12361.3","11211.3","9919.8","9304.3","11992.6" "Q2 2018","12643.3","12344.5","11143.7","9932.7","9267.4","11987.4" "Q3 2018","12533.8","12327.7","11076.1","9883.0","9230.5","11982.2" "Q4 2018","12287.5","12310.9","11008.5","9695.2","9193.5","11977.0"