Employment in the UK: May 2024

Other commentary from the latest labour market data can be found on the following pages:

• Labour market overview
• Average weekly earnings in Great Britain
• Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK
• Labour market in the regions of the UK
• Vacancies and jobs in the UK

• Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates have been weighted to population estimates published in November 2023 for periods from July to September 2022; headline UK seasonally adjusted series prior to this have been modelled, but other series have a discontinuity at this point.

• Increased volatility of LFS estimates, resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, means that estimates of quarterly change should be treated with additional caution, and we recommend using them as part of our suite of labour market indicators alongside Workforce Jobs, Claimant Count data, and Pay As You Earn Real Time Information (PAYE RTI) estimates.

• The UK employment rate for January to March 2024 (74.5%) remains below estimates of a year ago (January to March 2023), and decreased in the latest quarter.

• The UK unemployment rate for January to March 2024 (4.3%) is above estimates of a year ago (January to March 2023), and increased in the latest quarter.

• The UK economic inactivity rate for January to March 2024 (22.1%) is above estimates of a year ago (January to March 2023), and increased in the latest quarter.

Latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates are based on interviews that took place from January 2024 to March 2024.

Because of coronavirus (COVID-19) and the suspension of face-to-face interviewing, we had to make operational changes to the LFS, which moved to a by-telephone approach. This introduced an increased non-response bias to the survey, which was partially mitigated by the introduction of housing tenure-based weights into the survey in October 2020, as detailed in our Coronavirus and its impact on the Labour Force Survey article.

However, it was acknowledged that further improvement work was required to deal with the increase in non-response from those with a non-UK country of birth or nationality. As a result, an adjusted Labour Force Survey weighting methodology was introduced in July 2021. Further information is available in our Impact of reweighting on Labour Force Survey key indicators, UK: 2022 article.

From our February 2024 labour market release, LFS periods from July to September 2022 onwards have been reweighted to incorporate estimates of the size and composition of the UK population published in November 2023. This reweighting creates a discontinuity between June to August 2022 and July to September 2022. Users should take this discontinuity into consideration when considering long-term movements in the series.

However, we have modelled the seasonally adjusted UK levels of employment, unemployment and economic inactivity by sex and age band back to the start of the population revisions in June to August 2011. This has been done by scaling to the population estimates used from July to September 2022, while taking account of the relative revisions to population by sex and age band in each year over the revision period. This ensures that the headline series in Table 1, Table 2 (1) and Table 2 (2) (also available in A02SA, A05SA and A01 Tables 1 and 2) are comparable over the full series.

This reweighting does not address the volatility seen in recent periods and this may be seen to some extent in the future. Therefore, we advise increased caution when interpreting short-term changes in series and recommend using them as part of a suite of labour market indicators, alongside Workforce Jobs, Claimant Count data and Pay As You Earn Real Time Information (PAYE RTI) estimates.

LFS estimates are currently not considered National Statistics and are currently designated as official statistics in development.

For further information, please see our Impact of reweighting on Labour Force Survey key indicators article.

Following an increase in the employment rate since early 2012, the rate decreased from the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. There had largely been an increase since the end of 2020, but the rate has been decreasing since mid-2023. In the latest quarter, the employment rate decreased and remains below pre-coronavirus levels.

The annual decrease was largely because of part-time workers, while the quarterly decrease was largely because of part-time workers and the full-time self-employed. Full-time employees increased both on the quarter and on the year.

We also publish estimates of payrolled employees in our Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK bulletin and estimates of the number of jobs in our Vacancies and jobs in the UK bulletin.

Hours worked

The number of total actual weekly hours worked has been generally increasing in the UK since the relaxation of coronavirus lockdown measures, but was largely flat during 2023. In the latest period (January to March 2024), total actual weekly hours worked increased on the quarter to 1.06 billion hours and are above the level a year ago (January to March 2023). Both men’s and women’s hours worked increased on the quarter.

Average actual weekly hours worked have risen to 32.0 hours per working week, increasing in the latest quarter and are above the level a year ago (January to March 2023).

The unemployment rate had generally been falling from late 2013 until the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. It increased until the end of 2020, but had decreased to below pre-coronavirus rates by mid-2022. Thereafter it increased in the first half of 2023, but decreased in the second half. In the latest quarter, the unemployment rate increased.

Increased volatility of LFS estimates, resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, means that estimates of quarterly change should be treated with additional caution.

In January to March 2024, those unemployed for up to 6 months increased, and remain above levels a year ago (January to March 2023). Those unemployed for over 6 and up to 12 months and those unemployed for over 12 months also increased in the latest quarter following falls in the second half of 2023, and are above estimates of a year ago.

We also publish the Claimant Count, a measure of the number of people who are receiving a benefit principally for the reason of being unemployed.

Since comparable records began in 1971, the economic inactivity rate had generally been falling; however, it increased during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and fluctuated around this increased rate. In the latest quarter, the economic inactivity rate increased.

Increases in economic inactivity in the first year of the pandemic were largely among those aged 16 to 24 years. Following the pandemic, increases were largely among those aged 50 to 64 years.

Increases in economic inactivity over the latest quarter were largely among those aged 50 to 64 years and those aged 16 to 24 years. Those aged 16 to 24 years also drove the annual increase.

The increase in economic inactivity in the latest quarter was largely because of those inactive because they were temporarily sick, long-term sick, or retired. The annual increase was largely because of students and those who were long-term sick.

We also publish estimates of economic inactivity by reason and age from the Annual Population Survey (APS). Latest APS estimates, up to January to December 2023, show the majority of those who were inactive because of long-term sickness were aged 50 to 64 years, although long-term sickness has been increasing across all age groups.

APS estimates have not been reweighted to the same populations as the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Consequently, all APS tables remain weighted to the previous population totals, which will be inconsistent with those used for the LFS in the latest periods. More information on the relationship between the APS and LFS is available in our Comparison of labour market data sources.

The number of people reporting redundancy in the three months prior to interview decreased by 0.9 per thousand employees in January to March 2024, compared with the previous quarter, to 3.1 per thousand employees. The redundancy rate, however, remains slightly above the rate of a year ago (January to March 2023).

We also publish our HR1: Potential redundancies dataset showing potential redundancies, covering those notified by employers to the Insolvency Service through the form, broken down by region and industry.

From 14 May 2024, we have reinstated our estimates of labour market flows from the longitudinal Labour Force Survey. Estimates of labour market flows between October to December 2023 and January to March 2024 are weighted in line with the quarterly Labour Force Survey estimates. These estimates should be treated with additional caution because of increased volatility resulting from smaller achieved sample sizes, particularly in the October to December 2023 period.

No revisions are being made to previous periods and estimates that were previously suspended remain suspended. As a result, seasonally adjusted flows estimates are not available.

Flows estimates show that, between October to December 2023 and January to March 2024, there was a net movement from employment into both unemployment and economic inactivity. There was also a net movement from economic inactivity into unemployment.

Actual and usual hours worked

Statistics for usual hours worked measure how many hours people usually work per week. Compared with actual hours worked, they are not affected by absences and so can provide a better measure of normal working patterns. For example, a person who usually works 37 hours a week but who was on holiday for a week would be recorded as working zero actual hours for that week, while usual hours would be recorded as 37 hours.

Workers temporarily absent from a job as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic would still be classed as employed; however, they would be employed working no hours. This has directly affected estimates of total actual hours worked during the pandemic. Since the average actual weekly hours are the average of all in employment, those temporarily absent from a job also affected these estimates.

Claimant Count

The Claimant Count is an official statistic in development that measures the number of people who are receiving a benefit principally for the reason of being unemployed. Currently the Claimant Count consists of those receiving Jobseeker’s Allowance, and Universal Credit claimants in the “searching for work” conditionality group.

Economic inactivity

People not in the labour force (also known as economically inactive) are not in employment but do not meet the internationally accepted definition of unemployment because they have not been seeking work within the last four weeks and/or are unable to start work in the next two weeks. The economic inactivity rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are not in the labour force.

Employment

Employment measures the number of people in paid work or who had a job that they were temporarily away from (for example, because they were on holiday or off sick). This differs from the number of jobs because some people have more than one job. The employment rate is the proportion of people aged between 16 and 64 years who are in employment.

Workers furloughed under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS), or those who were self-employed but temporarily not in work, had a reasonable expectation of returning to their jobs after a temporary period of absence. Therefore, they were classified as employed under the International Labour Organization (ILO) definition.

A more detailed explanation is available in our Guide to labour market statistics.

Redundancies

The redundancy estimates measure the number of people who were made redundant or who took voluntary redundancy in the three months before the Labour Force Survey interviews; it does not take into consideration planned redundancies.

Unemployment

Unemployment measures people without a job who have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are available to start work within the next two weeks. The unemployment rate is not the proportion of the total population that is unemployed. It is the proportion of the economically active population (that is, those in work plus those seeking and available to work) that is unemployed.

A more detailed glossary is available.

This bulletin relies on data collected from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the largest household survey in the UK.

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as “official statistics in development”. Until September 2023, these were called “experimental statistics”. Read more about the change in our Guide to official statistics in development.

These statistics are based on information from the LFS. The reweighting exercise has improved the representativeness of our LFS estimates for periods from July to September 2022, reducing potential bias in our estimates. Nonetheless, the ongoing challenges with response rates and levels mean that LFS-based labour market statistics are now badged as official statistics in development until further review. This is also in line with the letter from the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), stating that LFS statistics should not be published as Accredited official statistics until OSR has reviewed them. We would advise caution when interpreting short-term changes in headline LFS rates and recommend using them as part of our suite of labour market indicators alongside Workforce Jobs, Claimant Count data and Pay As You Earn Real Time Information (PAYE RTI) estimates.

We are transforming how we collect and produce the LFS data to improve the quality of these statistics. We have published a Labour market transformation article providing an update on the transformation of labour market statistics. The Transformed Labour Force Survey will become the primary source of information on the labour market from September 2024.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in our LFS Quality and Methodology Information (QMI) report.

Our LFS performance and quality monitoring reports provide data on response rates and other quality-related issues for the LFS.

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Read more about how the labour market data sources are affected by the coronavirus pandemic in our Coronavirus and the effects on UK labour market statistics article.

For a comparison of our labour market data sources and the main differences, read our Comparison of our labour market data sources methodology.

Making our published spreadsheets accessible

Following the Government Statistical Service (GSS) guidance on Government Statistical Service (GSS) guidance on releasing statistics in spreadsheets, we will be amending our published tables over the coming months to improve usability, accessibility and machine readability of our published statistics. To help users change to the new formats, we will be publishing sample versions of a selection of our tables, and where practical, initially publish the tables in both the new and current formats. If you have any questions or comments, please email labour.market@ons.gov.uk.

Uncertainty in these data

The estimates presented in this bulletin contain uncertainty. For more information on uncertainty, please see our Uncertainty and how we measure it for our surveys web page.

The figures in this bulletin come from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), which gathers information from a sample of households across the UK rather than from the whole population. The sample is designed to be as accurate as possible, given practical limitations. Results from sample surveys are always estimates, not precise figures. This can have an impact on how changes in the estimates should be interpreted, especially for short-term comparisons. For more information on sampling, see Section 2 of our Uncertainty and how we measure it for our surveys webpage.

As the sample gets smaller, the variability of the estimates gets larger. Estimates for small groups, which are based on small subsets of the LFS sample, are less reliable and tend to be more volatile than for larger aggregated groups.

In general, changes in the numbers (and especially the rates) reported in this bulletin between quarters are small and are not usually greater than the level that can be explained by sampling variability. Short-term movements in reported rates should be considered alongside longer-term patterns in the series and corresponding movements in other sources to give a fuller picture.

Information on the quality of estimates is available in our Labour Force Survey sampling variability table.

Comparability

The data in this bulletin follow internationally accepted definitions specified by the International Labour Organization (ILO). This ensures that the estimates for the UK are comparable with those for other countries.

Our annual reconciliation report of job estimates article compares the latest Workforce Jobs series estimates with the equivalent estimates of jobs from the LFS. It is usually published in March each year following the benchmarking of Workforce Jobs.

Further information is available in our Guide to labour market statistics.